The Theory of Change – Linking Theory to Results Frameworks

•Inputs: The resources introduced through the intervention. These resources are primarily "Time" (people & skills) and "Things" (physical, logistical or technical resources) introduced by the appropriate use of "Money" (the intervention) to improve the quality oif "Time" and "Things" available to either the intermediaries &/or beneficiaries

• Capacity: The optimisation of "Time" and "Things" so as to create a new context (capacity) for the intermediaries &/or beneficiaries to view their current situation. The intervention introduces:
-"Time" inputs that in turn create "competencies" within the intermediaries &/or beneficiaries
-"Thing" inputs that create/improve "capabilities" within these groups

It is the combination of "competency" and "capability" that builds capacity (see below). Note: "Cost" is the "money" element of the intervention and it is the balance between "costs" and "capacity" that will determine how sustainable the intervention can be.

• Community: The scale-up and diffusion of new capacities across the wider group (The Innovation Adoption Lifecycle) through community-led sharing of new capacity via social-cultural channels and through the facilitated programme mechanisms.

• Attitudes: Peoples willingness to change, based on the new capacity that exists and their ability to (re)interpret their context and situation based on this new capacity. A willingness to change is not change in itself, but without it there cannot be sustainable change

• Behaviour: Sustainable change in peoples day-to-day behaviour as they incorporate this new capacity into their daily lives & routines. Behavioural change is sustainable change as, while attitudes can change (revert to old behaviours), accepted behaviours tend not to.

There are a variety of explanations (depending on the source) for what capacity building is. However, there is a simple formula to follow for any (all) organisations in order to measurably increase your capacity. Time, things and money are the only three resources that any (all) organisations have available to them. It is the optimisation of these resources that builds capacity.
•Time: the people available and their knowledge, skills and attributes
•Things: the physical, logistical, technological resources that are available to us
•Money: the financial resources that give us flexibility to buy additional time (e.g. recruitment, over-time, training) or things (additional tangible resources) should we need them

Optimising these three resources is measured against the stated objectives of the organisation, programme &/or partner. Normally these are the strategic objectives for a period – for example the Results Framework; towards which it intends to concentrate its resources/capacity. And the points of intervention that an organisation can make in order to optimise the combination of resources (time, things & money) in order to achieve these strategic objectives are:
•Competency focuses on “Time” – increasing the abilities of the human resources (staff, consultants, donors, supporters, volunteers, partners, beneficiaries etc.).
•Capability focuses on “Things” – what tangible resources are available to the organisation to allow it to exploit its competencies (i.e. what these human resources, where, when, how, etc. ).
•Cost is the enabling resource “Money” that allows us to invest in the organisations competency (buying better Time) and in the organisation’s capability (buying more appropriate things).

The Theory of Change – influencing attitudes, sustaining behaviours

The approach to developing a Theory of Change is by translating our understanding of the beneficiary needs, the operating environment, the cross-cutting themes, etc. into a programme design that defines the changes (results) that we want to achieve. The over-arching approach to understanding the drivers of change and looking to incorporate these into programme design and development draws on the following methodology:

Resources/Inputs: The resources introduced through the intervention. These resources are primarily "Time" (people & skills) and "Things" (physical, logistical or technical resources) introduced by the appropriate use of "Money" (the intervention) to improve the quality of "Time" and "Things" available to either the intermediaries &/or beneficiaries.

Capacity: The optimization of "Time" and "Things" so as to create a new context (capacity) for the intermediaries &/or beneficiaries to view their current situation. There are a variety of explanations (depending on the source) for what capacity building is. However, there is a simple formula to follow for any (all) organizations in order to measurably increase your capacity. Time, things and money are the only three resources that any (all) organizations have available to them. It is the optimization of these resources that builds capacity.
+ Time (Human Resources): the people available and their knowledge, skills and attributes
+ Things (Logistics & Infrastructure): the physical, logistical, technological resources that are available to us
+ Money (Financial Resources): the financial resources that give us flexibility to buy additional time (e.g. recruitment, over-time, training) or things (additional tangible resources) should we need them (see "What is Capacity Building")

The intervention introduces "Time" inputs that in turn create "competencies" within the intermediaries &/or beneficiaries; and "Thing" inputs that create/improve "capabilities" within these groups. It is the combination of "competency" and "capability" that builds capacity. Optimising these three resources is measured against the stated objectives of the organisation, programme &/or partner. Normally these are the strategic objectives for a period – for example the Results Framework; towards which it intends to concentrate its resources/capacity. And the points of intervention that an organisation can make in order to optimise the combination of resources (time, things & money) in order to achieve these strategic objectives are:
+ Competency focuses on “Time” – increasing the abilities of the human resources (staff, consultants, donors, supporters, volunteers, partners, beneficiaries etc.).
+ Capability focuses on “Things” – what tangible resources are available to the organisation to allow it to exploit its competencies (i.e. what these human resources, where, when, how, etc. ).
+ Cost is the enabling resource “Money” that allows us to invest in the organisations competency (buying better Time) and in the organisation’s capability (buying more appropriate things). Note: "Cost" is the "money" element of the intervention and it is the balance between "costs" and "capacity" that will determine how sustainable the intervention can be.

Community: The scale-up and diffusion of new capacities across the wider group (The Innovation Adoption Lifecycle) through community-led sharing of new capacity via social-cultural channels and through the facilitated programme mechanisms.

Attitudes: Peoples willingness to change based on the new capacity that exists and their ability to (re)interpret their context and situation based on this new capacity. A willingness to change is not change in itself, but without it there cannot be a sustainable change.

Behaviour: Sustainable change in people’s day-to-day behaviour as they incorporate this new capacity into their daily lives & routines. Behavioural change is sustainable change as, while attitudes can change (revert to old behaviours), accepted behaviours tend not to.

And some supporting Science on theories that support this approach:

“A number of theories have been developed to describe how changes in factors at the individual and interpersonal levels of the social ecological model work (Partners in Action – Washington; Models, Factors and Theories of Change).

- Cognitive behavioural theories: Health Belief Model, (HBM) addresses the individual’s perceptions of the threat posed by a health problem (susceptibility, severity), the benefits of avoiding the threat, and factors influencing the decision to act (barriers, cues to action, and self-efficacy; The Stages of Change (Transtheoretical) Model describes individuals’ motivation and readiness to change a behaviour; The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) examines the relations between an individual’s beliefs, attitudes, intentions, behaviour, and perceived control over that behaviour; The Precaution Adoption Process Model (PAPM) names seven stages in an individual’s journey from awareness to action. It begins with lack of awareness and advances through subsequent stages of becoming aware, deciding whether or not to act, acting, and maintaining.
- Theories Governing Social Change: Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) describes a dynamic, ongoing process in which personal factors, environmental factors, and human behaviour exert influence upon each other; Community Organization and Other Participatory Models emphasize community-driven approaches to assessing and solving health and social problems; Diffusion of Innovations Theory addresses how new ideas, products, and social practices spread within an organization, community, or society, or from one society to another; Communication Theory describes how different types of communication affect health behaviour.

Update from the field

I realise that I have not posted in a while but rest assured I have been working away here in East Africa and there will be more to follow, not least: quality programme design, resilience in relief, protective programming, effective M&E and some insights on the Theory of Change...

Happy 2013

Happy new year... I realise that this has been a quite year for posts but I promise - I have been busy working on a range of things - primarily in East Africa.

In addition to Water, Snakes and Quinoa for 2013 I will be working (& posting) on topics ranging from Humanitarian programme design (drawing on many of the skills that I have already shared through this blog); Humanitarian access in complex &/or conflict situations - both operational and legal; the Theory of Change for humanitarian interventions - which will inlcude linkages to DRR; and the hot-topic of 2012 and beyond Resilience (I will be taking a more practical approach on this). So have a great 2013.

Monitoring & Evaluation (M&E)

A part of my role in Somalia is to look at M&E, either through joint initiatives or internally, within the programmes and the emergency assistance that Concern is providing.

So this is a very simplified definition of M&E that I will expand upon in the future (you will notice that M&E draws on many of the principles of programme, risk, capacity, etc that are described in other parts of this blog)...

Monitoring is Performance Management and should provide sufficient information support decision-making that allows you to continue as planned or make changes, on an on-going basis, to activities that contribute to the achievement of the objectives/outcomes.
•The progress made on agreed activities
•The impact of risks that have materialised on Progress (activities) and Purpose (objectives/outcomes)
•The impact of assumptions that were incorrect on Progress (activities) and Purpose (objectives/outcomes)

Evaluation is Impact Assessment & Lesson Learning - that is to say, did we achieve what we set out to achieve and how did we do it. This is measured in two phases:
1.Did we do what we said we would do (meet the objectives/outcomes)
2.Did we meet the expectations of the various stakeholders (the Goal)

Evaluation is always a "point in time" assessment and so, itself will have assumptions ("our conclusion is based on..."). The opportunity for continuous improvement is to capture practical lessons that can be applied to Performance Management (decision-making & resource optimisation) for the future.

Resources: activities use resources, so performance management is resource optimisation. There are only three resources that are affected by decision-making:
1.Time: the number of people that you have, their skills, experience and ability to complete the activities
2.Things: the tangible things that are available to you to help you complete the activities
3.Money: the flexibility to buy either more time (1) or more things (2) that will help you complete the activities.

A RISK is a definable, describable but unknowable event that we presume will happen ("there is a risk of rain…"). As a result a risk requires additional resources/activities to mitigate its impact (umbrella, raincoat, sandbags, etc.)
An ASSUMPTION is a definable, describable but unknowable event that we presume will not happen ("we assume it will not rain..."). No additional resources are set aside - but the assumption must be monitored in case it is wrong.

Footnote: I am currently working on developing "Theories of change" for humanitarian and resilinece-based programmes. An important definition that I draw upon is for Strength (as in SWOT): Strength – is a tangible resource (time, things, money) that you can leverage to directly achieve your objective (strength-to-opportunity) or; influence the achievement of the objective by using those tangible resources to overcome a weakness or threat

Snapshot from Somalia

My most recent placement - as Food Assistance Programme Manager with Concern, responding to the famine in Somalia. One of my most challenging posts so far, the following is just a snapshot (note - much has changed in recent weeks, but that is for a later update when the security situation allows):

The Food Assistance programme is a 6 month life-saving programme designed around Food Vouchers. It is scheduled to cover the hunger period – which as we are all aware has been exasperated by the famine in Concern’s areas of operations in south/central Somalia; between the two harvest seasons (the Gu in July and the Deyr in January). The Food Assistance programme, which also includes blanket supplementary feeding plus recovery assistance such as seed provision for the Deyr season, will be completed with the final distribution of food vouchers in late January 2012. After which there will be programme closure activities including lesson learning, evaluations and donor reporting.

More importantly, with the changing security and political situation in Somalia, the Food Assistance programme requires active management & monitoring – we have seen in September the need for first-hand engagement in programme delivery by all members of the team – in the regions, in Mogadishu and in Nairobi. On behalf of Concern, as the lead agencyin south & central Somalia, I am actively engaging with cluster coordination and peer-organisations to ensure that assistance continues in these regions during the on-going instability.

Our teams have been able to procure / pre-position food stocks for our nutrition programmes to complement the food assistance that we are providing and the focus now is on continuity of the programme activities. As the programme manager I travel in regularly to Mogadishu, leading these teams with the support of the in-country managers & coordinators. As an organisation we know, from both current and past experience, that day-to-day management will be required right up to the final distributions in January 2012, where Concern is feeding more than 200,000 people every month.

There are also a number of initiatives that I am leading including a consolidated M&E initiative with several other NGOs that offer similar modalities of assistance (cash transfers/food vouchers). This will support our own lesson learning plus broader advocacy on these types of programmes. I am preparing a Standard Operating Procedures manual to cover the various procedures (from adhering to Concern policies to checklists for field activities). And I will be supporting the programme teams as Concern prepares for the transition from Emergency to Recovery in line with the changing circumstances and operational plans for 2012.

What is Capacity Building?

There are a variety of explanations (depending on the source) for what capacity building is. However, there is a simple formula to follow for any (all) organisations in order to measurably increase your capacity



Time, things and money are the only three resources that any (all) organisations have available to them. It is the optimisation of these resources that builds capacity.

Time: the people available and their knowledge,skills and attributes
Things: the physical, logistical, technological resources that are available to us
Money: the financial resources that give us flexibility to buy additional time (e.g. recruitment, over-time, training) or things (additional tangible resources) should we need them

Optimising these three resources is measured against the stated objectives of the organisation. Normally these are the strategic objectives for a period – the priorities of the organisation, towards which it intends to concentrate its resources/capacity.

And the points of intervention that an organisation can make in order to optimise the combination of resources (time, things & money) in order to achieve these strategic objectives are:


Competency focuses on “Time” – increasing the abilities of the human resources (staff, consultants, donors, supporters, volunteers, partners, beneficiaries etc.).

Capability focuses on “Things” – what tangible resources are available to the organisation to allow it to exploit its competencies (i.e. what these human resources, where, when, how, etc. ).

Cost is the enabling resource “Money” that allows us to invest in the organisations competency (buying better Time) and in the organisation’s capability (buying more appropriate things).


Take a look at Activity & Resource-based Planning on how day-to-day management of the three resources (time, things & money) can build capacity through good operational planning & management